As we have transitioned into Autumn, it's a question on everyone's mind, especially truckers who are on the road: What will this winter look like?
Generally speaking, I think we will see a winter much like last year. Climatologists look at many factors when making long-term predictions. Past winters with similar conditions and forces we know shape the polar and subtropical jet streams. With that said let's review some of these forces:
ENSO- El-Nino Southern Oscillation, better known as El Nino and La Nina depending on whether it's in a positive or negative phase.
PDO- Pacific Decadal Oscillation, as the name would suggest this is a decade long oscillation between positive and negative phases
NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation, this also tends to go through decadal oscillations between positive and negative
AO- Arctic Oscillation. This can be positive or negative.
PNA- Pacific-North American teleconection, this goes through positive and negative phases and affects weather patterns over the western United States and Hawaii.
So how is this winter shaping up? Guidance so far shows a weak negative ENSO (La Nina), given that and the negative PDO, look for the Alleutian Low to set up bringing wet weather to the northwest region with perhaps very large storm systems creating problems with flooding and landslides.
The negative NAO will create a blocking pattern in the northeast. Storm tracks will favor a more southerly route and you probably won't see many nor'easters this year due to a weak sub-tropical jet. That's not to say we won't be without problems. Many times in situations like these you will have storms form in the midwest and then reform off the coast of North Carolina where they intensify rapidly and head up the coast. These are called "Miller B" storms. During their trek through the Midwest they can often cause major icing in Nebraska, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Virginia.
For those of us in the Northeast, we will likely see fluctuations as the ENSO and NAO fight for control of the Jet stream. As things look now December will probably start out cold with a slight moderation, and then a cooler March. Areas that will favor snowfall will generally be inland with the best chance for big snows in more northerly latitudes and the west of the I-95 corridor. The DelMarVa area will likely see little precipitation as they will often get dry-slotted.
The Middle Atlantic region will probably enjoy milder temperatures as the southeast ridge sets up, especially south of 40N. North of 40N will run the risk of ice storms.
Of course climatology is in it's infancy and there are many, many variables that can change things drastically. this blog will be dedicated to regional forecasts, especially when a major storm is in development or impacting a region of the CONUS. Check back regularly for updated regional forecasts.
Please feel free to comment to any of the posts on this blog. The intent is to start discussions on the subject content. If you have articles for post or comments about the blog in general please contact: Thank you Preferred Logistics----------- www.preferredlogistics.biz
Generally speaking, I think we will see a winter much like last year. Climatologists look at many factors when making long-term predictions. Past winters with similar conditions and forces we know shape the polar and subtropical jet streams. With that said let's review some of these forces:
ENSO- El-Nino Southern Oscillation, better known as El Nino and La Nina depending on whether it's in a positive or negative phase.
PDO- Pacific Decadal Oscillation, as the name would suggest this is a decade long oscillation between positive and negative phases
NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation, this also tends to go through decadal oscillations between positive and negative
AO- Arctic Oscillation. This can be positive or negative.
PNA- Pacific-North American teleconection, this goes through positive and negative phases and affects weather patterns over the western United States and Hawaii.
So how is this winter shaping up? Guidance so far shows a weak negative ENSO (La Nina), given that and the negative PDO, look for the Alleutian Low to set up bringing wet weather to the northwest region with perhaps very large storm systems creating problems with flooding and landslides.
The negative NAO will create a blocking pattern in the northeast. Storm tracks will favor a more southerly route and you probably won't see many nor'easters this year due to a weak sub-tropical jet. That's not to say we won't be without problems. Many times in situations like these you will have storms form in the midwest and then reform off the coast of North Carolina where they intensify rapidly and head up the coast. These are called "Miller B" storms. During their trek through the Midwest they can often cause major icing in Nebraska, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Virginia.
For those of us in the Northeast, we will likely see fluctuations as the ENSO and NAO fight for control of the Jet stream. As things look now December will probably start out cold with a slight moderation, and then a cooler March. Areas that will favor snowfall will generally be inland with the best chance for big snows in more northerly latitudes and the west of the I-95 corridor. The DelMarVa area will likely see little precipitation as they will often get dry-slotted.
The Middle Atlantic region will probably enjoy milder temperatures as the southeast ridge sets up, especially south of 40N. North of 40N will run the risk of ice storms.
Of course climatology is in it's infancy and there are many, many variables that can change things drastically. this blog will be dedicated to regional forecasts, especially when a major storm is in development or impacting a region of the CONUS. Check back regularly for updated regional forecasts.
Please feel free to comment to any of the posts on this blog. The intent is to start discussions on the subject content. If you have articles for post or comments about the blog in general please contact: Thank you Preferred Logistics----------- www.preferredlogistics.biz
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